Politics
Trump’s Position Slips in Upcoming Virginia “Referendum”
By Jake Beardslee · June 18, 2025
The upcoming governor’s race in Virginia is emerging as a closely watched referendum on President Donald Trump’s leadership, with Democrat Abigail Spanberger maintaining a lead over Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in recent polling.
Spanberger, a former U.S. Representative, is aiming to become Virginia’s first female governor in the November 4 election. Her opponent, Earle-Sears, is running on a platform of continued conservative governance. Virginia law prohibits governors from serving consecutive terms, leaving the seat open as Governor Glenn Youngkin exits.
Political observers say the race holds national significance. David Richards, chair of the political science department at the University of Lynchburg, told Newsweek the election “will be seen as a bellwether race for the administration and also for the 2026 midterms.” He added that a Republican victory “could be taken by Trump as a referendum on his policies,” while a loss might signal problems for the GOP ahead.
Northern Virginia, home to a large population of federal workers, could play a decisive role. Richards noted that this region has felt the effects of recent government cuts and said support for Trump among independent voters there is likely limited.
Recent polling reflects a lead for Spanberger. The RealClearPolling average shows her ahead by 6.6 points. A Roanoke College survey conducted in mid-May found her leading by 17 points, though Richards called that poll an outlier due to its focus on registered rather than likely voters. Another poll from Pantheon Insights and HarrisX showed a tighter race, with Spanberger leading 52 percent to 48 percent among likely voters.
Both candidates are framing the stakes in urgent terms. Spanberger wrote in The Roanoke Times, “As governor, I’m ready to work with anyone — regardless of party — to bring prices down.” She claimed that “chaos in Washington” is making life more expensive and called for cooperation to deliver relief to Virginia families.
Earle-Sears responded with a message of continuity. “The stakes in this race couldn’t be higher,” she said in an April statement. “We must continue our work to protect the Commonwealth from radical changes that would undo the progress we’ve made in restoring prosperity to Virginia.”
With control of the statehouse on the line, the outcome of this race may offer the clearest early sign of how Trump’s presidency is being received outside Washington.