Politics

Trump’s Immigration Numbers Hit New Low

By Mike Harper · April 10, 2026

Immigration was supposed to be the floor. The issue where Trump’s numbers held even when everything else slipped. That floor is cracking.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in February found that only 38 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration — the lowest level since he returned to the White House in January 2025. Fifty-five percent disapprove. The Hill reported the findings, which mark a significant reversal from the 50 percent approval Trump enjoyed in the early months of his second term.

The drop among men is the number that stands out most.

Throughout 2025, Trump’s immigration approval among male voters — a group central to his 2024 coalition — held close to 50 percent. The February poll put that number at 41 percent. Among women, it fell to 35 percent. Those shifts in male support represent a meaningful change in a demographic that delivered his return to the White House.

The slide appears connected to a series of high-profile enforcement incidents, most notably the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens — including an ICU nurse — during immigration operations in Minneapolis, Minnesota. In a rare retreat, the administration agreed to end its deportation surge in that city. The optics of federal agents shooting American citizens during enforcement actions proved difficult to contain.

According to TRT World’s coverage of the Reuters data, 62 percent of respondents said Trump was not doing a good job on immigration — and the erosion is tracking toward a problem for the 2026 midterms. Republican pollster Whit Ayres noted that presidential approval ratings have historically predicted midterm outcomes, and Trump’s current numbers across issues are at the lowest point of his second term.

The broader picture is one of compounding pressure. Immigration approval is down. Mental fitness perceptions are softening even among Republicans. The Iran war has opened new lines of criticism. And the 2026 midterm map gives Democrats genuine pickup opportunities in competitive districts if independent voters continue drifting.

What remains unresolved is whether the trend stabilizes or continues. A ceasefire deal in Iran, if it holds and is seen as a win, could shift the overall approval picture. Immigration numbers tend to be stickier — they move with enforcement incidents and cost-of-living sentiment, both of which are harder to control from the Oval Office.

For now, the issue that was supposed to be Trump’s political bedrock is polling like a liability.