Politics
The Most Expensive Senate Primary in Texas History Ends Tonight
By Mike Harper · May 26, 2026
John Cornyn was first elected to the United States Senate in 2002. He has served as Republican Whip. He chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He raised more than $100 million for this race. He is the kind of institutionalist the Republican Party has been built on for decades.
Ken Paxton was impeached by the Texas House of Representatives in 2023 on eleven articles, including bribery, abuse of office, and obstruction of justice. He was acquitted by the Texas Senate after a trial that ended before key witnesses could testify. He was separately indicted on federal securities fraud charges — charges that remain pending. And seven days ago, Donald Trump endorsed him.
Texas voters are deciding today which version of the Republican Party they want representing them in Washington. The runoff between Cornyn and Paxton follows a March 3 primary in which neither candidate cleared 50% — Cornyn led 42-40, with Wesley Hunt’s 13% deciding nothing except that a runoff was inevitable. Most polling since March has shown Paxton narrowly ahead, with the most recent University of Houston survey putting him at 48% to Cornyn’s 45%.
Trump waited until seven days before the election to endorse Paxton — an unusually late declaration for a race this consequential. The delay was widely interpreted as genuine ambivalence: Cornyn has been a reliable ally in Trump’s second term, and Senate Republican leadership was actively lobbying the White House not to intervene. Trump intervened anyway.
The stakes extend beyond Texas. Many national Republicans and Senate leadership allies believe Cornyn is the only candidate who can reliably hold the seat in November against Democratic nominee James Talarico — a 39-year-old former teacher and state representative from Austin whose campaign focuses on economic inequality. Texas has not elected a Democratic US Senator since 1988. The seat is not considered competitive in a normal cycle. But Paxton carries the kind of legal baggage that gives Democratic fundraisers a usable narrative, and the 2026 environment — with Trump at 37% approval, gas above $4, and Democrats overperforming in special elections — is not a normal cycle.
Cornyn’s closing argument has been almost entirely about his record of delivering for Texas — military funding, border security, water infrastructure. His campaign spent enormous sums on direct mail and television.
Paxton’s closing argument has been simpler.
“Texans want new leadership. They want someone with a proven record of fighting and winning for them.”
The “fighting” he is referring to is the seventeen lawsuits he filed against the Biden administration, his effort to overturn the 2020 election results, and his sustained alignment with Trump at moments when establishment Republicans kept their distance.
Trump, for his part, posted on Truth Social after endorsing Paxton that Cornyn was “weak” and “not MAGA.” That framing — that 24 years of Senate seniority and $100 million in fundraising constitute weakness — is the argument that has now defeated Cassidy in Louisiana, five state senators in Indiana, and Massie in Kentucky.
Polls closed in Texas at 8 PM Central. Results are expected throughout the evening.