Politics
Gavin Newsom Takes Big Hit in New Poll
By Jake Beardslee · March 25, 2026
California Governor Gavin Newsom’s early standing in New Hampshire’s 2028 Democratic primary has fallen sharply, according to a new poll showing his support down nine points since last year.
New Hampshire often plays a critical role in shaping momentum during presidential nominating contests. Early declines in support can influence donor confidence, media attention, and open opportunities for rivals. Newsom’s dip comes as the Democratic field becomes more crowded and unpredictable.
A new Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll, conducted March 16-18, 2026, with 1,491 registered New Hampshire voters, found former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading the Democratic field at 29 percent, a one-point increase from November. Newsom followed at 15 percent, a nine-point decline. New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez rose to 10 percent, up eight points, while former President Kamala Harris remained steady at 6 percent. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker came in at 5 percent, with U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Governors Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania each at 4 percent.
The survey was based on online responses from randomly selected cellphone users, weighted by age, gender, geography, education, and 2024 presidential vote. It carried a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
In an earlier Saint Anselm poll conducted November 18-19, 2025, Newsom stood at 24 percent among Democrats, trailing Buttigieg at 28 percent. Harris registered 6 percent, and Pritzker 4 percent.
On the Republican side, the Saint Anselm survey found Vice President JD Vance leading with 46 percent, down 10 points from November. Secretary of State Marco Rubio rose to 27 percent, an 18-point jump. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley each registered 5 percent.
Newsom addressed broader political concerns in an interview with Politico, stating: “If we don’t win back the House of Representatives, we may not have a fair and free election in 2028.” On the possibility of a 2028 run, he said: “It’s fate that will determine that. It’s not me. It’s the people who will determine that…Family first. Period. Full stop. And number two, you have to meet the moment. And that moment presents itself in the context of [President Donald] Trump and Trumpism and the world we’re living in and all the just anxiety around what he’s unleashed in terms of the unknown and chaos. Who knows where we’ll be in six weeks, let alone six months, let alone in two years. And so it will reveal itself.”
Meanwhile, Buttigieg criticized the current administration, posting on X: “Our economy is bleeding jobs. Prices are up, especially for gas. Yet the White House prioritizes tax cuts for billionaires, while launching a reckless new Middle East war. It doesn’t have to stay this way—not if the American people make our voices heard.”
As the political landscape remains volatile, attention is turning to how potential contenders will navigate divided government, foreign policy tensions, and economic anxiety. Early-state polling is expected to play a significant role in shaping momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2028 nomination process.