Politics
15 Days Out: Where the Midterm Polls Stand
By Erica Coleman · October 19, 2026
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, which leaves 15 days of campaigning. All 435 House seats are on the ballot this year, along with about a third of the Senate, according to USAGov. Here is where the main measures of the race stood as of Monday morning.
The national average. The generic ballot asks voters which party’s candidate they would support for Congress in their district, without naming anyone. The Silver Bulletin average put Democrats ahead by 8.9 points as of Oct. 18. The site said the Democratic gain that began in early September has leveled off just below the cycle high of 9.1 points. A version of the average adjusted for likely voters showed a 9.6 point gap.
The newest Fox News poll. In Fox News’ national survey of 1,202 registered voters, conducted Oct. 9 to 12, 54% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district and 45% for the Republican. Among voters who rated themselves certain to vote, the split was 52% to 46%. In Fox’s September poll it was 51% to 44%. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 points. The survey is run jointly by Beacon Research, a Democratic firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican firm.
Quinnipiac’s late September reading. A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,032 registered voters, taken Sept. 24 to 27, found 51% wanted Democrats to win control of the House and 39% wanted Republicans to, with 9% offering no opinion. Independents preferred Democrats 54% to 30%.
Presidential approval. Fox found 36% of registered voters approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing and 64% disapprove, the lowest approval of his second term in Fox polling. Quinnipiac measured 34% approval and 61% disapproval.
The House map. The Cook Political Report’s House ratings, updated Oct. 16, list 214 seats as solid, likely or leaning Democratic, 200 as solid, likely or leaning Republican, and 21 as toss-ups. Sixteen of the toss-ups are seats Republicans hold now and five are held by Democrats. A party needs 218 seats for a majority.
The Senate map. Of the 35 Senate seats Cook rates this year, its Oct. 6 ratings list seven as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Six of those seven are held by Republicans. Counting seats not up this year, Cook’s ratings place 47 seats on the Democratic side and 46 on the Republican side before the toss-ups.
Early voting. NBC News’ tracker counted 9,549,628 mail and early in-person votes nationwide in its latest update Monday, about 6.8 million by mail and 2.8 million in person. More than 55 million mail ballots have been requested or sent. By party registration, 51% of early voters so far are registered Democrats and 32% registered Republicans, with the rest in other categories. The University of Florida Election Lab cautions that party registration statistics are not actual votes.
Voter interest. In the Fox poll, 84% said they were extremely or very interested in the November elections, and 6% said they had already voted. Asked how they vote or plan to vote, 24% said early in person, 25% early by mail or absentee, and 47% in person on Election Day.
Polls describe opinion on the days they were taken, and margins move. In Fox’s polling this year, the gap on the congressional question has ranged from 5 points in April to 9 points this month. If you plan to vote early or by mail this year, your state or local election office posts the deadlines and hours that apply to you.
Polls are snapshots of opinion at the time they were conducted and are not predictions. Figures in this article were current as of the morning of Oct. 19, 2026, and will change as new polls and vote counts are released.