Politics

Support for Gavin Newsom Jumps in Early 2028 Presidential Polling

By Jake Beardslee · August 19, 2025

Support for California Governor Gavin Newsom as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate has climbed sharply in recent months, according to new polling data.

An Echelon Insights survey conducted from August 14–18 among 1,057 registered voters found Newsom at 13 percent support, placing him second behind former Vice President Kamala Harris, who leads with 26 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percent. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg placed third with 11 percent, while Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez followed with 6 percent.

Just four months ago, an April poll by the same firm had Newsom in sixth place at only 4 percent, trailing both Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez, who polled at 7 percent each. Harris then, as now, remained the frontrunner with 28 percent.

Newsom’s rise coincides with a more combative stance toward President Donald Trump, particularly over Republican-led redistricting efforts in Texas. His communications team has leaned into an aggressive social media strategy—featuring all-caps posts, meme parodies, and pop culture references—designed to mock Trump’s style while countering Republican initiatives.

Strategists suggest Newsom’s momentum reflects voter appetite for a more confrontational Democratic figure. “Democrats are looking for a fighter. It’s not about ideology anymore. You can be centrist or progressive — what matters is that you stand up and hit back. The more aggressive Newsom gets, the more support he builds,” political consultant Mike Madrid, co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project told Newsweek.

Still, betting markets show Newsom’s odds improving. Polymarket reported his chances of winning the Democratic nomination over Ocasio-Cortez at 21 percent, up from earlier this month, and well ahead of Harris at 5 percent.

Newsom has not announced a campaign, and most candidates typically delay formal declarations until after the midterm elections. Harris, meanwhile, has not ruled out a second presidential bid despite losing to Trump in 2024.

Trump, for his part, dismissed the California governor’s record, telling reporters in June: “He’s done a terrible job. I like Gavin Newsom. He’s a nice guy but he’s grossly incompetent, everybody knows.”

Whether Newsom capitalizes on this surge will depend on the Democratic Party’s direction in the post-midterm landscape and who officially enters the race.