Politics

New 2028 Poll Signals Trouble for Kamala Harris as Democrat Rival Surges Ahead

By Jake Beardslee · June 27, 2025

In a surprising shift in early polling for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has pulled ahead of former Vice President Kamala Harris, according to new data from Emerson College.

The poll, conducted June 24–25 among 1,000 registered voters, found that 16% of Democratic respondents favored Buttigieg, while 13% supported Harris. This marks a dramatic reversal from Emerson’s November 2024 poll, where Harris held 37% support compared to just 4% for Buttigieg in the immediate aftermath of the last presidential election. Meanwhile, 23% of voters remain undecided.

California Governor Gavin Newsom placed third at 12%, followed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro with 7% each. Senator Bernie Sanders drew 5%, while New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer each garnered 3%.

No candidates have officially launched 2028 campaigns, but speculation is mounting. Harris, for example, is also being considered a strong contender for California governor, and has said she’ll decide on that race by the end of summer. “My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them,” Harris said earlier this year while visiting wildfire-impacted areas in California. “I am here and would be here regardless of the office I hold.”

Buttigieg, speaking in Iowa in May, remarked on the challenges Democrats face in connecting with voters in some regions. “Democrats do not have the best brand around here or in a lot of places,” he said. “There’s a lot of reasons for that. Some fair, and some not fair.”

The Emerson poll follows a series of surveys showing fluctuating support. A Morning Consult poll earlier in June showed Harris with 34% support and Buttigieg at just 7%. A May McLaughlin poll found Harris leading with 29%, followed by Buttigieg at 10% and Ocasio-Cortez at 9%.

As the Democratic Party debates whether a more progressive or moderate candidate can revive its electoral prospects, early polling suggests growing interest in Buttigieg’s centrist appeal. The primary field remains open, with no formal declarations, but potential frontrunners are already being closely watched.